Tropical Storm Fernand continued to organize late Sunday over the subtropical central Atlantic and is expected to remain over open water while curving farther away from Bermuda, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of 11 p.m. AST Sunday, Aug. 24 (0300 UTC Monday), Fernand was about 320 miles (515 km) east of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, moving north-northeast at 13 mph. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect.
Current status and forecast:
- Location & structure: Fernand’s tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. Central pressure was estimated at 1007 mb on Sunday night.
- Track: A general north-northeast motion is expected through Monday, followed by a turn to the northeast, keeping the system well east and northeast of Bermuda over open ocean.
- Intensity: The NHC expects some additional strengthening through Monday, with weakening likely late Monday or Tuesday as the storm moves over cooler waters and encounters less favorable conditions.
Why it matters:
- Limited direct land threat: With the forecast cone staying over the open Atlantic and no watches or warnings posted, direct impacts to land are not anticipated. The Associated Press likewise notes the storm poses no threat to land as it passes well east of Bermuda.
- Season context: Fernand is the sixth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, following Hurricane Erin, which became the season’s first hurricane earlier this month and briefly reached Category 5 over the North Atlantic, contributing to dangerous surf and rip currents along parts of the U.S. East Coast.
- Active season expectations: NOAA’s updated 2025 outlook calls for an above-normal season with 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes (Category 3+). Fernand fits within that expected elevated activity.
Background:
The Atlantic season runs from June 1–November. 30. A storm is named when sustained winds reach 39 mph (tropical storm strength); it becomes a hurricane at 74 mph and is rated on the Saffir–Simpson scale from Category 1 to 5, with Categories 3–5 considered major. NOAA reported Erin underwent rapid intensification to Category 5 on Aug. 16 over exceptionally warm waters—part of a recent pattern of more frequent high-end hurricanes in warm years.
What’s next:
- Near-term: Monitor NHC updates for any changes in track or intensity. The official forecast keeps Fernand over the central Atlantic, curving away from Bermuda and weakening by late Monday into Tuesday.
- Marine interests: While land impacts are not expected, mariners in the storm’s path should heed NHC marine forecasts and graphics for wind field and sea state guidance.
Quick answers readers want
- Where is Fernand now? About 320 miles east of Bermuda as of 11 p.m. AST Sunday.
- Is Bermuda or the U.S. at risk? No watches or warnings; forecast keeps the storm well east/northeast of Bermuda and over open water.
- Will Fernand become a hurricane? Some strengthening is possible through Monday, but weakening is likely to begin late Monday or Tuesday; current guidance does not indicate a land threat.
- How active is this season expected to be? NOAA projects 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, 2–5 major hurricanes—above normal overall.
